This day Shanghai aluminum main 2503 contract high open low, closed at RMB 20,405 / ton, down RMB65/ ton compared with the previous day. aluminum main contract 2502 low shock, closed at RMB 3840/ ton, down RMB 28 / ton compared with the previous day.
Aluminum oxide: domestic aluminum market prices continue to fall, the market reality to the expected supply and demand pattern from shortage to loose, downstream raw material inventories improve, cautious purchasing, traders discounted shipments to accelerate the price downward, approaching the JinYuQian high capacity cost line, a large discounted transaction conditions is expected to be weakened, the current high-cost capacity of static cost more than in the range of RMB 3700-4200. Near the Spring Festival before the last week of the effective work cycle, electrolytic aluminum enterprises may still through the tender procurement, just bargaining and other ways to continue to maintain a significant discount transaction, take the initiative to open and promote the offer to accelerate the downward trend, in order to try to achieve the February long single settlement price to maintain at a low level, is expected to near the month of the price pressure range of RMB 3,300-4,000, the far-month cost support, relatively resistant to fall. aluminum ingot, January 20, aluminum ingot social inventory of 452,000 tons, compared with the last period of accumulation of 16,000 tons. Weekly aluminum ingot open cumulative inventory, although late but to. According to research, this week the domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises continued to work rate downward, ring than last week fell 2.9 percentage points to 57.4%. Sub-segment view, only the primary alloy plate in aluminum water alloying ratio task support to continue to maintain the original start rate, the other segments start rate are down, and the rate of decline compared to the previous period to expand. Among them, the profile enterprise's work rate decline is especially obvious, the main reason into the Spring Festival holiday cycle, South China enterprises one after another holiday to reduce production. Overall, affected by the holiday, this week's aluminum downstream work rate fell to expand, next week will enter the processing enterprises concentrated holiday cycle, the work rate will further decline significantly.
Viewpoint: electrolytic aluminum main - shock, range RMB 19,700-20,600; aluminum main - short, range RMB 3600-4200;
Strategy: Short aluminum oxide when it reaches a high price
Core logic:
1.short-term repair of interest rate cut expectations;
2.rapid decline in aluminum spot;
3.uncertainty of overseas sanctions and tariffs.
