Looking ahead to 2025, the incremental volume of overseas bauxite mines will be about 20 million tonnes, of which Guinea will contribute the most. Global mines stage to overseas recovery, domestic mines focus on Shanxi reduction recovery. The alumina market is expected to turn into a surplus in the early second quarter, and the domestic first half of the year may need to export overseas.
Cost, the first half of 2025 alumina cost is expected to be above 4,000 yuan / tonne, the high point or near 4,500 yuan / tonne. The tightness of the mining side of the industry cost pivot is difficult to fall back, but there is downward pressure on the cost in the second quarter. Expected annual alumina absolute price in 3500 ~ 5800 yuan / ton, the annual price high point or appeared in the first half of the year.
Supply and demand, global aluminium ingot production growth is expected to be stable, demand growth is slightly higher than production growth, but the world is still in surplus. Inventory, the domestic first quarter after the accumulation of normalised de-stocking. Overseas consumption places alumina inventory gradually de-stocking, some regions have hidden inventory. Expected domestic and foreign supply and demand in the first quarter of 2025 is expected to improve, the second quarter of the beginning of the market visible obvious surplus. Industry profit, industry chain profit reconstruction, but it is difficult to return to the smelting end of the centralised state.
